摘要
利用江苏省3年的闪电资料和探空资料,首先分析了南京地区12个对流参数与闪电活动的关系,然后筛选出相关性较好的10个参数,运用熵值法、复相关系数法和组合权重法计算出这10个参数在闪电潜势预报概率方程中的权重,并分别用试验资料和独立资料对方程进行预报检验,得到了较高的预报评分。最后随机选取了江苏及周边地区连续两天的探空资料和地闪资料,用插值法生成了江苏地区未来12小时闪电潜势预报概率图,并与相应时段的闪电分布图进行了对比,研究发现预报效果显著,说明多参数复合加权得出的闪电潜势预报方程对未来12小时的闪电活动潜势预报有重要的现实意义。
According to the flash and sounding data of nearly three years in Jiangsu province,the relationship was first analyzed between 12 convective parameters and lightning activity in Nanjing.Then ten related parameters were selected and their weight equations were calculated for these parameters for the probability of lightning prediction potential using the entropy method,multiple correlation coefficient method and combined weighting method.At the same time,the equations were verified using experimental data and independent information.A high prediction score was achieved.Sounding and ground flash data for two consecutive days were selected,and a map was obtained of lightning potential forecast probability in the Jiangsu region for 12 hours ahead using interpolation,and compared with lightning distribution maps for the corresponding periods.It was found that the prediction result was obvious.This showed that the lightning potential prediction equation,determined with the multi-parameter composite weighting method,is of practical significance for the forecast of lightning activities potential for 12 hours ahead.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第5期758-764,共7页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
云南省气象局业务能力研究建设专项(Y200804)
云南省科技厅项目(2009CA014)共同资助
关键词
天气预报
雷电潜势预报
复合加权
weather forecast
lightning potential forecast
composite-weighted
