摘要
目的构建北京市昌平区细菌性痢疾月发病的ARIMA模型,为防控工作提供依据。方法应用SPSS 18.0软件分析2004-2010年北京市昌平区细菌性痢疾月发病数资料,构建ARIMA乘积模型,并预测2011年细菌性痢疾月发病数。结果最优乘积模型为ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,1)12,模型具有较高的预测精度,预测值与实际值基本吻合,且实际值均在预测值可信区间范围内。结论 ARIMA模型能够应用于北京市昌平区细菌性痢疾流行趋势的预测及疫情的预警、预报,为实施干预提供依据。
Objective To establish an ARIMA model for the prediction of monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery in Changping District,Beijing,and provide evidence for the prevention and control of the disease.Methods The incidence data of bacillary dysentery were collected from 2004 to 2010 in Changping District,Beijing.An ARIMA model was constructed to forecast the monthly case numbers of bacillary dysentery in 2011 with SPSS 18.0 software.Results The best model was ARIMA（1,0,0）（1,1,1）12,which had a good match with the existing data.All true values fell in the 95% confidence intervals of expected values for expected case numbers of bacillary dysentery by the model.Conclusion The ARIMA model of monthly bacillary dysentery incidences can be applied for forecasting the epidemic trend of the disease.
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
2011年第10期842-844,共3页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
关键词
ARIMA模型
时间序列
细菌性痢疾
预测
ARIMA model
Time series analysis
Bacillary dysentery
Forecasting
