摘要
【目的】分析气候变化背景下东北三省主要作物类型(水稻、玉米、春小麦和大豆)典型物候期(出苗期、抽穗期和成熟期)的变化趋势。【方法】应用气候倾向率(θ)确定农业气候资源特征和典型物候期的变化趋势与整体对应关系。【结果】近20年来,东北三省大部分地区≥10℃初日出现了提前趋势,初霜日不断推迟,温度生长期天数持续增加,≥10℃积温总体呈升高趋势。在此背景下,水稻和玉米均出现了出苗期提前(0.04<θ<0.55 d.a-1和0.04<θ<0.35 d.a-1)、成熟期推后(0.09<θ<0.35 d.a-1和0.23<θ<0.38 d.a-1)、以及生育期延长(0.31<θ<1.26 d.a-1和0.11<θ<0.57 d.a-1)的趋势;大豆则表现为出苗期提前(0.01<θ<0.61d.a-1)、成熟期提前(0.18<θ<0.19 d.a-1)、生育期缩短(0.06<θ<0.17 d.a-1)的趋势;而春小麦典型物候期的变化趋势不明显。【结论】东北三省农业气候资源变化使作物生长期内温度适宜程度偏向好转,总体上有利于早种晚收、生育期长的作物品种的推广种植。
【Objective】 The objective of this research is to analyze the phenophases（including the stages of seeding,heading and maturity） changes of rice,maize,spring wheat and soybean in three provinces of Northeast China.【Method】Annual slope change rate（θ） was computed to evaluate the temporal trend and the relationship between agroclimate and phenophases.【Result】Over the past 20 years,the timing of first effective temperature date（T≥10℃） was advanced,the first frost date was postponed,the growth period was continually extended and the accumulated temperature（T≥10℃） was increased in most area of the three provinces.Under this background,the temporal trend of phenophases of both rice and maize showed an advanced seeding stage（0.04θ0.55 d？a-1 and 0.04θ0.35 d？a-1）,a postponed maturity stage（0.09θ0.35 d？a-1 and 0.23θ0.38 d？a-1） and an extended length of growth period（0.31θ1.26 d？a-1 and 0.11θ0.57 d？a-1）.By contrast,temporal trend of soybean phenophases was different and characterized by an advanced seeding stage（0.01θ0.61 d？a-1）,a maturity stage（0.18θ0.19 d？a-1）,and a shortened growth period（0.06θ0.17 d？a-1）.As for spring wheat,there was no obvious temporal change for the phenophases.【Conclusion】Climate change resulted in the increase of temperature suitability for crops,which could benefit from an early seeding stage,a late maturity stage and a long growth period.
出处
《中国农业科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第20期4180-4189,共10页
Scientia Agricultura Sinica
基金
国家"973"计划项目(2010CB951502)
国家自然科学基金项目(40930101
40971218)
中央级公益性科研院所专项资金项目(2011-15)
关键词
作物物候期
气候变化
生育期
东北三省
crop phenophases
climate change
growth period
the three provinces of Northeast China
