摘要
应用滑动平均、滑动变异系数等方法对吉林市1951—2008年气温和降水量进行了分析。结果发现:吉林市气温呈上升趋势,平均气温增温速率比全国高0.10℃/10a,但比东北区低0.03℃/10a;降水总体呈减少的趋势,春季降水有增长的趋势,夏季降水目前处于少雨段,秋季降水变化不明显,冬季降雪呈逐渐递增的趋势;降水的变率明显高于气温的变率,冬季降雪变率明显高于夏季降水。NCEP再分析资料统计分析发现:冷冬年东亚大槽维持时间较长;暖冬年东亚大槽较弱且偏东。多雨年较少雨年副高偏强偏北,贝加尔湖有低压异常,东北地区异常偏南气流强盛。
With the methods of moving average and moving variance,an analysis is made of the temperature and precipitation over Jilin from 1951 to 2008.The results show that temperature over Jilin tends to ascend,with the average temperature ascending speed being 0.10 ℃/10a greater than that over the whole China,but 0.03 ℃/10a lower than that over Northeast China.Annual precipitation tends to decrease overall.Precipitation in spring shows a tendency of ascending,while precipitation in summer shows a decreasing tendency at present.There is no obvious change in precipitation in autumn,and there is a gradual increase tendency in snowy in winter.The variability of precipitations was obviously greater than that of temperature,and the variability of snow in winter was obviously greater than that of rainfall in summer.The analysis of NCEP data shows that the trough of East Asia lasted for a longer time in cold winters,while the trough of East Asia was weaker and a little eastward in warm winters.In wet years,the subtropical high over West Pacific was stronger and more northward,and there was a significant abnormal low in the areas around Lake Baikal,with the strong farther southern flow over Northeast China.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2011年第5期575-581,共7页
Meteorological Science and Technology
