摘要
三明市是福建省暴雨的频发区,数值模型通过多年的发展证实其对于提高暴雨等灾害性天气预报准确率起到了积极的作用。对2004—2008年5—6月逐日实况物理量与日雨量进行分析,分析表明:垂直速度场、水汽通量场、相对湿度场等13个物理量与三明汛期暴雨关系较好,通过对各种因子进行逐步回归分析,利用完全预报法建立三明市各县(市)的暴雨数值预报模型。经检验该模型对汛期暴雨具有较好的预测能力,2004—2008年对暴雨的概括率为60%～83%,2009年24h暴雨预报准确率达37.5%。
Heavy rainfall occurs frequently in Sanming of Fujian Province.Numerical models have played an active role in the improvement of the forecast accuracy of disastrous weather,such as heavy rainfall.An analysis is made of several physical quantities and daily rainfall in May and June from 2004 to 2008.The results indicate that 13 physical parameters,such as vertical velocity,vapor flux,relative humidity etc.,have clear correlations with heavy rainfall during the flooding season in Sanming.Through combining these physical parameters together,the heavy rainfall numerical forecasting models for counties of Sanming are built and the verification indicates that the models performed well during the flooding season.The coverage of heavy rainfall forecasting is between 60% to 83% from 2004 to 2008,and that the 24-hour forecasting accuracy of is 37.5% in 2009.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2011年第5期558-561,共4页
Meteorological Science and Technology
关键词
暴雨
汛期
预报模型
数值预报产品
heavy rainfall
flooding season
forecasting model product
numerical prediction
