摘要
利用2005—2008年3—9月亮温(TBB)资料,采用逐步判别分析法建立强对流天气预报方程,判别监测区域内某一云团未来可能产生区域性强对流天气、局地性强对流天气、无强对流天气;同时采用指标叠加法判定某云团有无强对流天气。在统计福建省多年冰雹、雷雨大风的雷达回波参数的基础上,确定大冰雹、冰雹、雷雨大风强对流天气的雷达参数(强度、风暴顶高度、垂直液态水含量、回波顶高等)阈值,并根据当天的0℃、-20℃高度与风暴顶的高度差,将CINRAD雷达产品中输出的风暴逐个进行筛选,对系统判定可能出现大冰雹、冰雹、雷雨大风的强风暴输出其未来1h内将影响区域信息。
The severe convective predictive equation is set up with the method of stepwise discrimination analysis by using the TBB data from 2005 to 2008,to decide if a cloud cluster in the monitoring area will produce regional severe weather with the indicator superposition method.Based on the statistics of radar parameters during hail and gust events with thunderstorms for many years in Fujian,the radar parameter thresholds for severe convective weather,such as big hail,hail,and gust with thunderstorm,are decided.According to the height difference between the height of the 0 ℃ level and the storm top and that between the height of the-20 ℃ level and the storm top,the storms captured by CINRAD are chosen one by one,so to identify the area that will be influenced in the next one hour by storms that may bring about big hail,hail or gust weather.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2011年第5期545-551,共7页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
福建省科技厅重点项目"强对流天气短时临近预报预警系统研制"(项目编号:2008Y0027
2009Y0006)
福建省自然科学基金"山区短时暴雨预报预警研究"(项目编号:2010J01244)资助
关键词
亮温(TBB)
逐步判别法
指标叠加法
雷达参数阈值
强风暴临近预报
TBB（Blackbody Brightness Temperature）
stepwise discrimination
indicator superposition
radar parameter threshold
severe storm nowcast
