摘要
[目的]研究我国西北干旱区春季降水与全球海温的相关特征。[方法]利用1979～2008年GPCP全球逐月降水资料和NOAAERSST海温资料,采用相关分析和合成分析等方法,分析了西北干旱区30年来降水特征及其与全球海温的相关分布特征。[结果]1979～2008年西北干旱区春季降水量均呈波动增加;15°S～22°N、45°～105°E范围的印度洋海温对西北干旱区春季的降水具有持续性影响,可以作为一个预报西北干旱区春季降水的稳定因子。印度洋、孟加拉湾、阿拉伯海地区的海温偏高时,春季西北干旱区的降水有可能偏多;同时前期夏、秋、冬季赤道东太平洋附近的海温若偏高,对于次年西北干旱区春季降水很有利;阿拉伯海、中印度洋以及西太平洋地区的海温场是影响西北干旱区春季降水的关键因素。[结论]该研究为干旱区降水的预测预报提供理论依据。
[Objective] The research aimed to study the correlated characteristics between spring precipitation in the arid region of Northwest China and global sea surface temperature.[Method] Based on GPCP global monthly precipitation and NOAA ERSST sea surface temperature data during 1979-2008,the precipitation characteristics in the arid region of Northwest China in 30 years and the correlated distribution characteristics between it and the global sea surface temperature were analyzed by using the correlation and composite analysis methods.[Result] Spring rainfall presented the fluctuation increasing in the arid region of Northwest China during 1979-2008.The sea surface temperature of Indian Ocean in 15° S-22° N,45°-105° E had the continuing influence on spring precipitation in the arid region of Northwest China.It could be as a stable factor forecasted spring precipitation in the arid region zone of Northwest China.When the sea surface temperature was higher in Indian Ocean,Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea,maybe spring precipitation in the arid region of Northwest China was more.If the sea surface temperature near the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean in summer,autumn and winter in the prior period was higher,it was favorable for spring precipitation in the arid region of Northwest China in the next year.The sea surface temperature field in Arabian Sea,middle Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean was the key factor affected spring precipitation in the arid region of Northwest China.[Conclusion] The research provided the theory basis for the prediction and forecast of precipitation in the arid region.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第27期16847-16849,共3页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
中国气象局公益性行业专项(201006023)
关键词
西北干旱区
降水
海温
相关性
Arid region of Northwest China
Precipitation
Sea surface temperature
Correlation
