摘要
从协调性的研究现状来看,现有研究的基础性工作缺失,且受到"均衡发展"思想束缚、不能很好地描述不确定性问题,而基于集对分析方法的协调性研究可以很好地解决以上问题。以江苏省土地利用系统为研究对象,首先运用典型相关分析对子系统之间的相关性进行验证;其次,引入集对分析思想,对土地利用的效益协调性和消耗协调性进行了评价。结果显示:土地利用变化子系统同土地利用各效益子系统之间表现出较为显著的相关性;土地利用的效益协调度大多处于较为协调状态。其内部结构表明,虽然当前政府在促进经济社会发展的同时更加注重对生态环境的保护,但并没有从根本上解决经济发展和生态环境恶化之间的矛盾;消耗协调度变动幅度相对较小,土地利用变化同土地利用效益之间基本呈现"均衡"发展态势。政府逐渐认识到用地规模的过度扩张所带来的各种负面影响,追逐用地效益的提升成为发展的主线。与以往研究结论不同的是,效益协调度和消耗协调度均没有表现出显著的持续增长态势。
Based on the study of the current research of coordination, we find that the uncertainty is not described accurately, groundwork of research is lacking, and the definition of coordination is limited due to the idea of ＂balanced development＂. Therefore, using Jiangsu Province as the study area, we validate the correlation between the subsystem of land-use change and other subsystems of land-use efficiency by using the canonical correlation analysis, evaluate the coordination of land-use efficiency and the coordination of land-consumption based on the Set Pair analysis. The results indicate that land-use change and land-use efficiency subsystems show more significant correlation; coordination degree of land-use efficiency is most in a coordinated condition, and its internal structure shows that although recently the government has paid more attention to the protection of ecological environment, the conflict between economic development and the degradation of ecological environment has not been resolved fundamentally; coordination degree of land-consumption goes modestly, the development trend between land-use change and land-use efficiency takes on a ＂balanced development＂ situation, and the internal structure of the degree indicates that the government has gradually realized the negative impacts of excessive expansion of construction land, and improving the efficiency of land-use is becoming the main line of development. Different from the previous studies, coordination degree of land-use efficiency and land-consumption are both not showing an upward trend.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第9期57-63,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
江苏省国土资源科技项目"土地综合整治效益评估与方法研究"(编号:201026)
关键词
不确定性
集对分析
土地利用协调性
协调度
江苏
uncertainty
Set Pair analysis
coordination of land-use
coordination degree
Jiangsu Province
