摘要
近年来,如何防范和治理通货膨胀已成为中国宏观经济领域亟需解决的一项重大课题,而治理通胀的关键在于对其形成原因的科学把握。本文选取CPI和PPI作为通货膨胀的衡量指标,以产出缺口、货币供应量、国际大宗商品价格、超额工资水平、资产价格、汇率水平六大因素作为解释变量,运用向量自回归(VAR)、脉冲响应和方差分解的方法,对2000-2011年中国通货膨胀的形成原因进行实证分析,得到了各项因素的作用大小、作用时滞和传导链条的顺序,最后提出了相应的政策建议。
In recent years, how to fight against and manage inflation has been an important and urgent issue in c discussion. The key point lies in scientifically understanding the causes of inflation. Taking CPI and PPI as the measurements of inflation, and setting GDP gap, money supply, prices of international commodities, excess wage, asset price and exchange rate as independent variables, this paper uses Vector Auto-Regressive （VAR） model, impulse response and variance decomposition method to empirically analyze the causes of inflation from the year 2000 to 2011. The empirical results show each cause＇ s magnitude of influence, lag of influence and the order of transition. We also provide corresponding policy suggestions.
出处
《投资研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第7期67-77,共11页
Review of Investment Studies
基金
教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目(08JC790108)
中央财经大学211工程三期科研基金项目
中央财经大学青年科研创新团队的阶段性研究成果
