摘要
通过分析由两个相邻的交通检测器观检测得到的实时交通流数据,建立一个可以估计交通事件发生概率的模型。该模型表明,交通事件发生的概率与稳定交通流中上游交通流密度所占的比例和上游、下游交通流的速度差这两个因素具有较大的相关性。该模型只需要利用基本的交通数据便可估算交通事件的发生概率,在高速公路的管理中有较大的应用价值。
A model is proposed to estimate the probability of traffic incidents occurrence,which is achieved by analyzing the real time traffic flow data from two neighboring traffic detectors.The proposed model indicates that the probability of traffic incident occurrence is positively related to the ratio of the upstream traffic density to the steady traffic density,and the speed difference between the upstream traffic and the downstream traffic.The model only need to use the basic traffic data can be estimated probability of the occurrence of traffic and highway management in the greater value.
出处
《交通标准化》
2011年第10期159-162,共4页
Communications Standardization
关键词
交通事件预测
交通流理论
交通安全
traffic incident prediction
traffic flow theory
traffic safety
