摘要
利用Mann-Kendall检验法分析三江平原挠力河上游径流在1956～2002年间的演变趋势,结果表明,径流在1966年发生突变,将流域径流分为1956～1966年和1967～2002年两个阶段。应用统计方法分析气候要素和人类活动对径流减少的影响并借助IHACRES模型将影响量化,研究结果表明,在第一阶段,气候要素是导致径流减少的主要原因;在第二阶段,人类活动为主要原因,并且31%的年份径流较基准期减少50%以上,25%的年份径流较基准期减少30%～50%,25%的年份径流较基准期减少10%～30%。
In this paper,the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the tendency of runoff changes for upper stream of Naoli River in the Sanjiang Plain in 1956-2002,the abrupt change of runoff occurred in 1966 and the watershed runoff was divided the into two stages,that is,1956-1966 and 1967-2002.The coefficient of variation was applied to testing the effect of the climatic element on the runoff reduction.The conclusions are arrived that the climatic factor is the main reason causing the reduction of runoff in the first stage while the human activities made the runoff decrease abruptly in the second stage.The IHACRES model was used to simulate the runoff in 1967-2002 and calculate the runoff reduced by human events.The results show that 11 years of the gauged annual runoff reduced more than 50% compared with the reference annual runoff in the second stage,and of which 10 years reduced from 30% to 50% and 11 years reduced from 10% to 30%,respectively.
出处
《地理科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第8期952-957,共6页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划(973)项目(No.2009CB421103)
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(No.KZCX2-YW-Q06-03
No.KZCX2-YW-309-04)资助
