摘要
基于环境压力与经济发展脱钩理论,利用环境领域中IPAT模型的生态效率指标派生公式,分析测算长株潭城市群目前的经济发展脱钩状况,论述了区域发展过程中的"波动上升"脱钩发展轨迹;运用情景分析法提出长株潭城市群的理性增长模式与脱钩发展目标。研究表明:目前,除水资源消耗已达到相对脱钩水平外,长株潭其余环境压力指标与GDP增长仍呈高度耦合关系;在有效转变经济增长方式的前提下,预计至2020年,用水总量实现与经济增长绝对脱钩,废水、废气排放量实现相对脱钩,其余环境压力指标的生产效率得到较大程度提高。为解决土地和能源安全两大核心问题,建议长株潭应积极构建生态高效的土地利用体系,切实转变经济增长方式,优化能源结构与布局,以实现城市群环境与经济的协调发展。
In the context of increasing environmental and resources pressures in Chinese economic development, it is significant to carry out studies on the decoupling relationship between environmental pressure and economic growth and the pathways to realize the decoupling. This paper introduces the decoupling theory for environmental pressure assessment, applies eco-efficiency calculation formulas evolved from IPAT model to evaluate the states of the decoupling relationship during 2001-2008 in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration （or Chang-Zhu-Tan for short）. It is proved that the regional economic decoupling development presented an improving trend with fluctuation. In addition, the paper utilizes the scenario analysis to draw up the stage goal in order to achieve decoupling, and offers some measures to solve the major problems which prevent Chang-Zhu-Tan from achieving its decoupling objectives. The results are as follows： 1）At present, all environmental pressure indicators, except that of water resources consuming, haven’t reached the decoupling level. 2） It is estimated that, by 2020 water resources consuming would achieve comprehensive decoupling, the discharge of waste water and gas would achieve relative decoupling, and the eco-efficiency of environmental pressure indicators would increase greatly. 3） It is necessary for Chang-Zhu-Tan to construct an ecologically high effective land use system, change the economic growth mode and optimize the energy structure and layout, so as to realize the goal of decoupling between environmental pressure and economic growth.
出处
《热带地理》
北大核心
2011年第3期297-303,共7页
Tropical Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"快速城市化地区空间冲突的形成机理与调控机制研究--以长株潭城市群为例"(41071097)
湖南省社会科学基金项目"长株潭城市群资源环境承载力研究"(09ybb286)
关键词
脱钩理论
环境压力
IPAT
长株潭
decoupling
environmental pressure
IPAT
Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration
