摘要
通过对长江流域近60 a来气象资料和自然灾害资料的搜集和整理,从金沙江/雅砻江水系、岷沱江水系、上游干流区间、嘉陵江水系、乌江水系、汉江水系、洞庭湖水系、鄱阳湖水系和中下游干流区间等9个不同的区域研究了厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜(ElNio—Southern Oscillation,ENSO)事件对长江流域气候的影响。通过对降水量、气温、自然灾害事件等气候因子与ENSO事件的特征进行对比统计分析得出,ENSO事件对长江流域降水量和气温的影响十分显著。厄尔尼诺事件年大多表现为温度升高和降水减少,且发生干旱灾害的概率升高。拉尼娜事件年一般表现为降水增多,洪涝灾害发生率相对增加。建国60 a来长江两次全流域性特大洪涝灾害都发生在厄尔尼诺事件向强拉尼娜事件转换年。厄尔尼诺事件对长江流域气候的影响要强于拉尼娜事件。2009—2010年的ENSO事件气象条件与1998年发生大洪水时的气象条件状况极其相似,2010—2011年和以后强ENSO冷暖事件转换年长江发生全流域性大洪水的可能性大,一定要做好气象监测和气象灾害防治。
Based on the meteorological and natural disaster data in the Yangtze river basin during the last 60 years,we studied the influence of El Nio—Southern Oscillation（ENSO） events on the climate in the nine subbasins or regions of the Yangtze river basin including Jinshajing/Yalongjiang river,Mintuojiang river,upstream of Yangtze river.Statistical analysis of the relationships between climate factors（precipitation,temperature,natural disaster events etc.） and the ENSO event clearly showed that they had significant impacts on the precipitation and temperature in Yangtze river basin.Most El Nino events or years were warmer and drier with an increased probability of drought.Most La Nina events or years were cooler and wetter with an increased probability of flooding.The whole basin flood disasters happened twice during the past 60 years,both of which occurred in the years transiting from El Nino events to La Nina events.El Nino had more significant and stronger influences on the climate than did La Nina.The meteorological conditions of the ENSO event during 2009—2010 was similar to those of 1998 during which a huge flood occurred.During 2010-2011 and the ensuing transition from the El Nino event to the La Nina event,it is more likely for the whole basin flooding to occur.For better preparedness,weather monitoring and prevention measures must be strengthened.
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第3期1-6,11,共7页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
教育部人文社会科学重大研究项目"西北典型地区水环境"(05JJD770014)
中国科学院黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室项目(SKLLQG0814)
关键词
ENSO
长江流域
降水量
温度
气象灾害
ENSO
the Yangtze River basin
precipitation
temperature
meteorological disaster
