摘要
利用延河流域控制站甘谷驿水文站流量实测数据及流域内5个县级气象站降水观测数据,分析了1952-2008年间甘谷驿水文站以上延河流域降水与径流的年内、年际变化特征,并运用滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和Sen斜率估计法对延河流域降水、径流的变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明,延河流域汛期降水量和径流量分别占全年降水量和径流量的72%和64%。20世纪50年代至90年代,径流变化过程基本与降水过程一致,但到了21世纪初期,降水量呈先升后降的变化趋势,而径流量呈下降趋势。1952-2008年间流域降水量呈微弱的减少趋势,而冬季降水却以0.18mm/a的幅度显著递增。甘谷驿站汛期径流量以99.25万m3/a幅度显著降低。从径流的季节变化上来看,春季降低趋势不显著;夏秋两季径流分别以83.83万m3/a和26.16万m3/a的幅度显著减少;而冬季径流以15.62万m3/a的幅度显著增加。虽然相关分析表明降水变化与径流变化有较好的相关关系,但人类活动对径流的影响不容忽视。
Based on the measured streamflow data at Ganguyi hydrological station and the precipitation data of five meteorological stations in Yanhe river basin,annual,seasonal precipitation and streamflow were analyzed for the period of 1952-2008,and the Moving average method,Mann-Kendall test and Sen slope method were employed to detect the long-term change of precipitation and streamflow during the study period.The results showed that the precipitation and streamflow in flood season account for 72% and 64% of average annual precipitation and streamflow,respectively.The change of streamflow had the same trend as precipitation from 1950s to 1990s;precipitation increased first and then decreased later in the beginning of 21th century,however,the streamflow showed a decreasing trend at the same period.The annual precipitation had a weak decreasing trend during 1952-2008,but a significant increasing trend could be found in winter season at the rate of 0.18 mm/a.The streamflow of Ganguyi hydrological station decreased significantly in flood season at the rate of 99.25×104 m3/a.In four seasons,a declining trend for streamflow was identified in spring,but the change was not significant;the downward trends were significant in summer and autumn at the rate of 83.83×104 m3/a and 26.16×104 m3/a,respectively;while the significant increasing trend was detected in winter with the magnitude of 15.62×104 m3/a.Although correlation analyses reveal a close relationship between precipitation trends and streamflow trends,the contribution of human activity to the change of streamflow cannot be neglected.
出处
《水土保持学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第3期49-53,共5页
Journal of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
科技部“973计划”项目(2007CB407201)
农业部“948”项目(2010-S16)
