摘要
目下人民币国际化的实践似乎违背了政策的初衷。一则,随着人民币跨境贸易结算的发展,中国对美元风险的暴露不仅没有减少,反而不断增加;二则,滞缓的香港离岸市场发展正在引发一个潜在、但愈发强烈的呼吁:迅速放开中国的资本项目。本文以日元国际化的教训为例,说明了"贸易结算+离岸市场/资本项目开放"的日元国际化模式之所以失败的原因:其一,除了政治、军事因素以及国内金融市场发展滞后之外,日本非金融企业缺乏国际竞争力、尤其是匮乏有影响力的跨国企业是日元贸易结算不能顺利推行的根本原因;其二,国内金融改革尚未展开就急忙放开资本项目,这在当时造成了一个横跨在岸和离岸市场的"再贷款游戏",并成为1990年日本泡沫危机和长期经济增长乏力的重要原因。以史为镜,本文建议,在国内金融改革实质推动并基本完成前,人民币国际化应该从激进、危险的"贸易结算+离岸市场/资本项目开放"模式转向渐进、稳定的"资本输出+跨国企业"模式。
The current practice of RMB internationalization seems to have departed from the original policy considerations.First,in the process of RMB settlement in cross-border trade,China's exposure to the risk of the US dollar is increasing rather than decreasing as we hoped before;second,the sluggish offshore market development,which is in contrast with the fast accumulation of RMB deposits in Hong Kong,has led to increasingly strong call for opening up China's capital account.This article takes lessons from Japanese yen's internationalization to highlight the causes for the failure of the 'trade settlement + offshore market/opening up capital account' model.First,apart from the political and military factors and the underdeveloped domestic financial market,the fundamental factor for the failure of pushing yen-based trade settlement is the lack of international competitiveness and influence of non-financial Japanese businesses;second,hastened opening up of the capital account before starting domestic financial reform had resulted in a 're-lending game' between the onshore and offshore markets,which became the main cause for the 1990 bubble crisis and the country's prolonged economic weakening.Taking lessons from Japan's history,this article suggests that before China completes its domestic financial reform,RMB internationalization should move to the model of 'capital outflow + development of multinationals',which is gradual and more stable,from the dangerous and radical model of 'trade settlement + offshore market/opening up capital account'.
出处
《国际经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第4期53-68,4,共16页
International Economic Review
