摘要
研究目的:对房价与地价关系进行因果关系检验,探索其地域等级差异规律,以期为因地制宜地制定房价调控政策提供参考。研究方法:对比分析法,ECM,Granger因果关系检验。研究结果:(1)地价对房价的短期影响表现为:三线城市最强,二线次之,一线最差;房价对地价的短期作用表现为:二线城市强于一线和三线城市;(2)房价与地价的相互关系在中期稳定性差,且不同城市表现出变动的随机性;(3)地价对房价的长期作用表现为一线、二线和三线城市逐渐增强;房价对地价的长期影响则恰好相反。研究结论:(1)房价与地价关系特征相似的城市,在相关政策的制定上可以彼此借鉴;(2)房价调控政策要将时效性考虑在内;(3)房价调控政策的制定要依据城市等级而有所差异。
The purposes of this paper is to study the causality between house price and land price, and explore their regional disparity in order to provide the reference for the control policy on housing price in different cities. Research methods include contrastive analysis, ECM, Granger Causality Test and demonstration analysis. Results show that the short-term impact of land price on house price is strongest in the third-level cities, following that in the second-level ones and the first-level ones. The short-term impact of land price on house price is stronger in the second-level cities than the other two. The relationship between house price and land price in the medium-term is not stable, which varies randomly in different cities. The degree of long-term impact of land price on house price is gradually increased from the first to the second and then the third level cities; the long-term impact of house price on land price is vice versa. Conclusions are that（1）if the relationship between house price and land price is similar then the experience of the house price control policy can be exchanged in different cities,（2）The price controlling policies are only effective regarding certain period, （3）Different control policies should be established in the cities on different levels.
出处
《中国土地科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第5期79-84,F0003,共7页
China Land Science
基金
重庆市国土资源和房地产学会调研课题"重庆市公共租赁住房融资模式研究"(201012)
