摘要
由于贸易转移效应,韩欧自由贸易区(FTA)将可能对中国外贸产生一定的负面影响。结合一般均衡模型,模拟韩欧FTA对中国总量进出口、中国各产业进出口、中国贸易条件和福利水平等指标的影响进行研究,结果表明:韩欧FTA将降低中国部分产业的进出口,恶化中国贸易条件,导致中国福利水平下降。同时韩欧FTA将使得中国出口产品在韩欧两个市场上的竞争力产生大小不等的负面影响。
Korea-EU FTA would have negative impact on China＇s foreign trade due to the effect of trade diversion.This paper analyzes both the ESI of China and Korea＇s exports in EU market and the ESI of China and EU＇s exports in Korean market.Then applying GTAP system,this research explores the Korea-EU FTA＇s impacts on China＇s overall exports and imports,China＇s exports and imports by sector,terms of trade and welfare.GTAP simulation results predict,due to Korea-EU FTA,China would suffer from reduced exports and imports on some products,accompanied with deteriorated terms of trade and social welfare.Furthermore,the negative impacts of Korea-EU FTA on China＇s export to either Korea or EU market would vary with its exporting products.
出处
《东北亚论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第4期79-86,共8页
Northeast Asia Forum
基金
上海市优秀青年教师基金项目资助(37010409001)
关键词
韩欧FTA
中国外贸
影响
Korea-EU FTA
China＇s foreign trade
impact
