摘要
本文梳理了人口与内需关系的相关理论,构建了扩大内需人口经济学的初步框架。本文利用国家统计局和世界银行提供的相关数据,基于中外经验,对人口增长、人口年龄和城乡结构变化的内需效应进行了实证分析。本文的结论是,人口增长不会破坏扩大内需,人口年龄和城乡结构的急剧变化对低消费率和高投资率有较强的解释力。实现从以物为本到以人为本、由严格控制人口增长向允许人口适度增长的转变,应成为扩大内需的重大战略。
This paper reviewed the relationship between population and domestic demand,and provided a basic analysis framework of population economics for expending domestic demand.Using the data from National Bureau of Statistics of China and World Bank,this paper empirically explored that the effects of demographic factors on domestic demand,which was based on experiences from China and foreign countries.We suggested that the population growth could not reduce the domestic demand,and the dramatic changes in age composition and urbanization could explain the lower consumption ratio mostly.Two policies should be considered as leading strategies on stimulating domestic demand： to change from GDP-oriented growth to the people-oriented growth,and to transfer from the strict birth control policy to the optimum growth policy.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第6期20-28,共9页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"人口转变
人口控制政策影响经济增长可持续性研究"(07BRK003)
中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目"人口政策
扩大内需与长期经济增长"(200902452)
国家公派访问学者项目(留金发[2009]3004)
关键词
内需
人口经济分析
以人为本
人口政策
domestic demand
population economics
people-oriented
birth control policy
