摘要
CO2排放对于世界气候的影响是新世纪人类面临的最严峻的挑战之一。各国经济总是要发展的。要求所有国家碳排放总量较少是不合理的,也是根本做不到的。但是要求所有的国家(重化工业爆发式增长国家例外)的单位GDP的碳排放(碳强度)逐步减少,却是合理的。如果各国的碳强度的递减,导致碳排放的总量每年平均递减1.38%,全球就能够实现2050年碳排放量减半的目标。评价可以促进这一目标的实现。本课题采用活力评价和竞争力评价两种方法,评价各国的碳强度。活力评价界定为评价时期碳强度递减率及递减率的稳定性的综合。竞争力是尚未表达的能力,是竞争过程变化的能力,竞争目标时间能力需要预测的能力,界定为在竞争的目标时间可能达到的水平的预测。2004-2007年各国GDP活力评价及2010年的竞争力评价如附表。瑞典通过30年碳减排努力,低碳经济的活力和竞争力均居世界第一位。美国碳减排的制度创新和减排技术领先世界,但是由于政府重视不足,活力和竞争力均居各国的中游。中国由于处于重化发展时期,政府和企业做了巨大努力,碳减排成绩虽然巨大,但活力处于各国的中游,竞争力处于下游。按照中国的承诺和发展趋势,可以实现对世界减排的责任。
CO2 emissions from the global climate of the new century,it is mankind faces the most serious challenges.The development of national economies always.Requires all countries to lower carbon emissions is unreasonable,and it is simply impossible.But requires（the explosive growth of heavy industry state exceptions） of carbon emissions of the unit GDP of all countries,（carbon intensity） progressively less,but it is reasonable.If the the reducing carbon intensity of countries,resulting in the total amount of carbon emissions an average decrease 1.38% per year,the world will be able to achieve 2050 goal of halving carbon emissions. Evaluation can contribute to this goal.Evaluation of the project with the vitality and the competitiveness of the two methods.Evaluation of countries carbon intensity.Evaluation of the vitality is defined as two indicators-the carbon intensity decline rate and decreasing the stability of the rate of synthesis in evaluation period.Competitiveness is not the expression of ability,is the ability to change in ？the competitive process.Competitiveness is defined as the target time in the competition may reach the level of forecast.2004-2007 years,low-carbon economy countries in 2010 the vitality and the competitiveness of low-carbon economy evaluation results shown in the addendum.Sweden,through 30 years of efforts to reduce emissions of carbon,low-carbon economic vitality and competitiveness ranking first in the world.U.S.carbon emissions reduction system of innovation and technology leader in the world,but due to lack of government attention,vitality and competitiveness of the middle ranking countries.Because China is in heavy development,the government and enterprises have made great efforts,carbon emission reduction performance is great,but the energy in the middle reaches of the countries,competitiveness in the downstream.According to China＇s commitments and the development trend of the reduction can be achieved the responsibility of the world.
出处
《未来与发展》
2011年第5期2-12,共11页
Future and Development
关键词
碳强度
竞争力评价
活力评价
carbon intensity
vitality evaluation
competitiveness evaluation
