摘要
港口集装箱吞吐量预测问题具有多因素非线性相互作用构成的高阶次、复杂时变系统特征。基于该特征,引进系统动力学建模法建立了宁波-舟山港集装箱吞吐量模型,利用环境、经济、进出口贸易、港口及集疏运5个子系统的非线性相互作用,反映多种不确定因素对港口集装箱吞吐量的影响。应用该模型预测了宁波-舟山港2010—2020年集装箱吞吐量,取得了较好的结果。
Predicting of port container throughput is characterized by a series of nonlinear factors＇ interaction,which form a high-order,complicated time-varying system.In view of the thought mentioned above,a container throughput predicting method based on SD was proposed.In the model,five subsystems,i.e.,environment system,economy system,harbor system,import and export trade system and the collecting distributing system were included to consider the nonlinear interactions among relative factors.Using this model,the container throughputs from year 2000 to 2020 of Ningbo-Zhoushan port were predicted and the simulated and verified results suggest the model to be effective and feasible.
出处
《水运工程》
北大核心
2011年第4期58-62,76,共6页
Port & Waterway Engineering
关键词
宁波-舟山港
集装箱吞吐量
系统动力学
预测
Ningbo-Zhoushan port
container throughput
system dynamics（SD）
prediction
