摘要
针对传统径流预测模型无法反映径流序列随机性,或模拟收敛速度慢、模型参数难以确定等缺点,提出了一种新的径流预报模型——生命旋回——拓扑预测模型。该模型用生命旋回模型模拟预测径流量序列的趋势项,用拓扑模型来对径流残差序列进行修正。将生命旋回——拓扑模型用于黄河唐乃亥水文站径流预测中,平均预测精度达到96.28%,合格率为100%。表明该模型预测精度较高,模型实用可行。
The traditional runoff predicting models can not reflect the randomness of runoff series,or have slow convergence speed,have some difficulty to determine the model parameters.Aiming at these shortcomings,a new runoff predicting model-the life cycle-topological prediction model is put forward,in which the life cycle model is used to imitate and predict the tendency item of runoff series,and the topological prediction model is also used to amend the runoff residuals.We use the life cycle-topological prediction model to predict the runoff of Tangnaihai hydrological station of the Yellow River.The result shows that the average precision of this model is 96.28%,100% prediction results is qualified.It shows that the life cycle-topological prediction model have higher prediction accuracy,this model is practical and feasible.
出处
《水利科技与经济》
2011年第4期3-5,12,共4页
Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy
基金
江苏省高校哲学社会科学资金资助项目(09SJB630017)
关键词
径流预测
生命旋回模型
拓扑模型
黄河唐乃亥站
runoff prediction
life cycle model
topological model
Tangnaihai Station of the Yellow River
