摘要
黑龙江省农业在全国范围内具有十分重要的地位,但黑龙江省又是一个受气象灾害的影响较大的省份,导致农业的生产存在一定的波动性,每年会因气象灾害造成一定的损失,更主要是会使国家粮食安全受到冲击,对保证农民收入稳定持续的增长存在一定的制约。对黑龙江省农业生产和农业气象灾害分布进行了介绍,从黑龙江省的基本情况出发,着重对黑龙江省的农业气象灾害的风险进行了评估,在此基础上运用灰色系统预测模型对黑龙江省的农业气象灾害进行了预测,以期为政府决策时提供参考。
Heilongjiang province has a very important position in the national agriculture production,but it is one of China＇s provinces which are affected by agro-meteorological disasters,leading to the volatility in agricultural production,the loss of agro-meteorological disasters each year,especially food security under attack,which exists a certain block for sustainabe increasing of farmer income.Firstly,the agriculture condition and the distribution of agricultural disasters in Heilongjiang province are introduced.Secondly,basing on Heilongjiang＇s current situation,this paper assesses its agricultural disaster risk.At last,by applying the grey predictive model,this paper predicts agro-meteorological disasters in Heilongjiang province in order to provide a reference for government decision-making.
出处
《黑龙江八一农垦大学学报》
2011年第2期77-81,共5页
journal of heilongjiang bayi agricultural university
基金
黑龙江省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(11544007)
