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华南盛夏气温异常成因及预测研究 被引量:14

Cause and Forecast of Abnormal Temperature in Southern China during Midsummer
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摘要 利用1951~2007年中国大陆160站和台湾地区3个代表站盛夏(7~8月)温度资料、北半球500 hPa高度及北太平洋海温资料。通过合成分析、对比分析和相关分析等方法,研究了台湾地区及其与华南大陆地区盛夏气温的一致性;华南地区盛夏气温异常的年代际变化特征及其与北半球500 hPa高度场、北太平洋海温场的关系。结果表明:台湾地区及其与华南大陆地区盛夏气温具有很好的一致性。华南地区盛夏气温具有明显的年代际气候变化特征。西太平洋副高、南海副高的异常变化和亚洲大陆高纬度地区有无阻塞高压生成,是影响华南地区盛夏气温的直接原因。前期冬季北太平洋中低纬度地区西风环流和春季北非副高强弱变化,对华南地区盛夏气温变化具有很好的指示性。前期各月尤其是2~3月北太平洋海温距平分布型,对华南地区盛夏气温变化也具有很好的指示意义。 Basing the midsummer(July-August)air temperature data of 160 stations of China mainland,3 stations(Taibei,Taizhong and Hengchun)of Taiwan Region from 1951 to 2007,500 hPa height data of the North hemisphere,SST data of the North Pacific,using analysis methods of synthetic,comparative and correlation,the decadal characteristic of midsummer temperature and its relationship between the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa height field and the North Pacific SST were analyzed.The results show that the summer temperature of Taiwan and Southern China are well consistent.Summer temperature in Southern China has obvious decadal climatic characteristic.The blocking high-pressure in Asian continent,the abnormal activities of Western Pacific subtropical high and South China Sea subtropical high are likely the direct cause of the abnormal temperature in Southern China during Midsummer.The strength of low latitude westerly circulation of North Pacific in early winter,and that of North Africa subtropical high in spring,give a very good indication of Southern China summer temperature,especially the distribution pattern of North Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)in Feb.and Mar.
出处 《气象研究与应用》 2011年第1期1-5,33,共6页 Journal of Meteorological Research and Application
基金 军内科研项目(第105号)
关键词 华南地区 盛夏气温 异常变化 成因研究 South area of China temperature during midsummer abnormal variation cause analysis
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