摘要
应用系统动力学方法对京郊大兴县青云店乡农业机械化的中长期发展问题进行了研究。结果表明,青云店乡1987～2000年农村经济发展速度有3种可能方案;到本世纪末,该乡农机年投资额的最高水平和最低水平相应为29.6万元和20.1万元,主要作业项目机械化程度的最高目标和最低目标是:小麦联合收获分别为85.7%和75.7%,玉米联合收获分别为53%和35%。研究表明,应用此方法研究农机化中长期发展规划结果令人满意。
The method of system dynamics is applied to study the middle-long-term developing problem of agricultural mechanization in Qingyundian Village of the suburbs of Beijing.The results indicate that there are three possible programmes of the developing velocity of rural economy of Qingyundian Village in 1987—2000.To the end of this century, the highest level and the lowest level of the amount of agricultural mecha- nization investment per year in this village are comparily 296000 yuan and 201 000 yuan,the highest target and the lowest target of the mechanization degrees of main operation items in the village are:the combination of harvest- ing wheat 85.7% and 75.7%,the combination of harvesting corn 53.0% and 35.0% etc.The research indicates that the method is relatively better to be applied to study the middle-long-term developing programme.
关键词
农业机械化
发展
系统动力学
system dynamics
agricultural mechanization
middle-long-term development
