重大公共危机网络舆情扩散监测和规律分析被引量：23

Monitoring Model on Diffusion Law Identification of Network Public Opinion for Major Public Crisis

下载PDF

导出

摘要网络传播技术手段裂变式发展,互联网正在形成舆论的"自由市场",因此,对重大突发公共事件网络舆情扩散规律进行识别和引导的重要性日益突现。基于复杂系统网络信息传播与扩散的"六度分隔"假说、小世界网络和无尺度网络等社会网络理论,分析了重大突发公共危机网络舆情信息扩散演化过程,建立了基于主体(Agent)的网络舆情扩散监测模型以及网络舆情扩散规律分析模型。仿真结果得出的网络舆情扩散规律符合实际情况。该研究对于化解社会矛盾、有效解决公共危机以及构建和谐社会等具有重要的学术价值和深远的社会意义。 Network communication technology develops in the form of fission,the Internet forms＂free market＂ of public opinion.Therefore,to identify the diffusion law of network public opinion and guide has the growing importance.Based on＂Six Degrees of Separation＂ hypothesis,small-world network and scale-free networks,the thesis analyzes information diffusion evolution process of network public opinion for unexpected major public crisis,and also constructs an Agent-based network monitoring model for diffusion process of public opinion and its corresponding diffusion-law analyzing model.The simulation results are consistent with the actual situation.It is significant to resolve social contradictions,to solve a public crisis,and to build a harmonious society.

作者孙佰清董靖巍

机构地区哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院

出处《哈尔滨工业大学学报（社会科学版）》 2011年第1期92-97,共6页 Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition)

基金教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10YJC860040) 国家软科学研究计划项目(2008GXS5D113) 黑龙江省自然科学基金面上项目(40000045-6-07259) 黑龙江省教育厅人文社会科学项目(11544080)

关键词公共危机网络舆情扩散规律多主体建模 public crisis network public opinion diffusion law multi-agent modeling

分类号 E91 [军事] TP391.9 [自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献14

1STONER J A F. A Comparison of Individual and Group Decisions Involving Risk [ D ]. Master Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,1961.
2ISENBERG D. Group Polarization: A Critical Review and MetaAnalysis [ J ]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1986,50 (6) : 1141 1151.
3[美]格雷厄姆·阿利森,菲利普·泽利科.决策的本质:解释古巴导弹危机[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2008.
4WATrS D J, STROGATZ S H. Collective Dynamics of Small World Networks [ J ]. Nature, 1998, 393 : 440 442.
5BARABASI A L, ALBERT R. Emergence of Sealing in Random Networks [ J ]. Science, 1999, 286 : 509 512.
6SZNAJD WERON K, SZNAJD J. Opinion Evolution in Closed Community [ J ]. International Journal of Modern Physics C ,2000,11 (6) : 1157 1165.
7DEFFUANT G, NEAU D, AMBLARD F, et al. Mixing Beliefs Among Interacting Agents [ J ]. Advances in Complex Systems,2000,3 : 87 98.
8SUNSTEIN C R. The Law of Group Polarization [ J ]. Journal of Political Philosophy, 2002, 10 ( 2 ) : 175 195.
9SIA C,Tan B C Y,Wei K. Group Polarization and Computer Mediated Communications : Effects of Communication Cues, Sial Presence and Anonymity [ J ]. Information Systems Research ,2002,13 ( 1 ) :70 90.
10GALAM S. Contrarian Deterministic Effects on Opinion Dynamics :The Hung Elections Scenario [ J ]. Physiea A ,2004,333:453 460.