摘要
用主振荡型（ Ｐ Ｏ Ｐ）方法分析了热带洋区月平均海表温度异常（ Ｓ Ｓ Ｔ Ａ）。结果表明，最重要的 ４ 个传播型 Ｐ Ｏ Ｐ对与 Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ／ Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ 事件关系密切，说明这类事件具有复杂的时空结构。在此基础上，给出了一个能定量地综合多个传播型 Ｐ Ｏ Ｐ对作用的 Ｐ Ｏ Ｐ中性预测方案。非独立样本和独立样本试验表明，它具有 ４ 个月的预测时效，且其预测能力在 Ｓ Ｓ Ｔ 强异常的 Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ、 Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ 事件阶段强于弱异常的非 Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ／ Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ 事件阶段。
In the context of POP technique,analysis is carried out of tropical monthly mean SSTA.Results show that the most important four POPs are closely related to El Nino/La Nina events,indicating that the event has complicated time space structure.Based on POP analysis,a POP neutral prediction scheme is given,which can integrate multiple propagating POPs and make quantitative prediction.The dependent and independent sample hindcast experiments show that the scheme can make forecast four months in advance,and the predictive skill of El Nino/La Nina event stages is higher than that of non event stages.
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
1999年第3期360-366,共7页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
基金
"九五"气候攻关课题
关键词
主振荡型
热带
海表温度异常
中性预测方案
Principal Oscillation Patterns (POP)
tropical SSTA
neutral prediction scheme
