摘要
利用重庆逐日气温资料分析了过去1961-2000年极端气温指数(气温年较差)的年际、年代际变化及其与气温相关要素的关系.然后利用用于IPCC-AR4的全球气候模式产品,验证其对重庆地区极端气温指数(气温年较差)的模拟能力的基础上,对模拟能力较好的模式进行组合,预估高(A2)、中(A1B)、低(B1)3种排放情景下21世纪重庆地区气温年较差的变化.与1980-1999年相比,A2情景下21世纪重庆地区气温年较差多数时期将可能以减小为主,A1B情景和B1情景下21世纪重庆地区气温年较差多数时期将可能以增大为主.
Based on the daily temperature data from 1961 to 2000 in Chongqing,the inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of observed extreme temperature index（intra-annual extreme temperature range,ETR） in Chongqing are studied and the relationships between ETR and different temperature-related factors are analyzed.Projections of ETR over Chongqing for the 21st century are made with the multi-model datasets of SRES A2,A1B and B1 in combination with the IPCC fourth scientific assessment report.The results show that compared to the current climate（1980-1999）,ETR over Chongqing will possibly reduce under the SRES A2 scenario and increase under the SRES A1B and B1 scenarios in most years of the 21st century.
出处
《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第1期120-127,共8页
Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项项目"全球变暖背景下三峡库区极端天气气候事件趋势预估研究"
重庆市气象局科技计划项目"<重庆市气候业务技术手册>相关科学技术研究"共同资助
关键词
重庆
气温年较差
模式模拟
趋势预估
Chongqing
annual range of temperature
model simulation
trend projection
