摘要
20世纪90年代以来,中国工业污染排放量仍在持续增加,环境质量并没有得到显著的改善,但由于环境技术进步和产业结构调整的贡献,污染排放的增长幅度已出现明显减缓的势头。为了定量评价这两种作用的影响,本文引入环境效应分解模型,对1998-2008年中国工业SO2减排的动态效应进行了实证研究。结果表明,1998-2008年中国工业减排的环境净效应中,环境技术效应贡献了环境净效应的-97.76%,而结构调整效应对环境的改善并不大,仅为-6.33%。从各年度环境净效应的分解结果看,环境技术进步效应在各年度仍发挥了主要的作用,年均占到-90.03%。但值得肯定的是,从2005年开始的"十一五"时期,结构效应起到了一定的效果,尤其是2008年,结构效应更是贡献了-15.98个百分点。本文认为,由于企业边际排污成本可能在增加,技术效应总是有限的,尽管产业结构调整的步伐相对比较缓慢,但在当前两型社会建设的进程中,必须在科学发展观的指导下,更加注重结构效应的改善。
Since the 90s of the 20th century, China＇ s industrial pollution continues to increase, environmental quality has not been significantly improved, but due to the technological progress and structural readjustment, the growth rate of pollution emissions has seen distinct slowing down. In order to quantitatively evaluate these two effects how to reduce China ＇ s Industrial SO2 emission, the decomposition model is established in this article. It shows that, Chinese industry pollution reduction completely comes from environmental technological progress, and the contribution ratio is -97.76% , Meanwhile, structural readjustment does not improve the environment as we expect, the contribution ratio is -6.33% from 1998 to 2008. From the results of the environment effect of the each year, technological progress still to play a major role, annual accounts -90.03%. But the positive is that, from ＇ Eleventh Five-Year＇ period, the structural effects play a certain effect, especially in 2008, structural effects all contributed to -15.98%. In our view, it may the company＇ s marginal abatement cost increases, and technological effects are always limited. In despite, the structure readjustment is slow comparatively, we should adhere to the scientific concept of development, emphasize the improvement of structural effects during the construction of Resource-saving and environment-friendly society.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第3期41-47,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社科基金资助项目(项目批准号:08BMZ030)
关键词
技术进步
结构调整
污染排放
分解模型
technological progress
structural readjustment
pollution emission
decomposition model
