摘要
针对传统边坡变形的非等间隔灰色预测模型模拟序列并非指数序列问题,基于灰色差分算法和搜索算法建立模拟结果为指数序列的边坡变形非等间隔预测模型。以链子崖危岩体为例进行预测,结果表明非等间隔预测模型对近似指数增长趋势的边坡变形数据预测精度更高,当建模数据为非等时间间隔时,可代替GM(1,1)模型与其他模型进行组合。
It is indicated that the simulated sequence of the existing non-equal interval grey model is not an exponential one.Based on grey difference method and search method,a kind of non-equal interval grey forecasting model is proposed,of which the simulated sequence is an exponential one.Taking the unstable rock of Lianziya for an example,test results show that the proposed model is more propitious to predict slop displacement which satisfy with the homogenous exponential rule than the existing model.Therefore,it can take place of GM（1,1） model for forecasting combination.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2011年第3期116-117,63,共3页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
边坡变形
灰色理论
非等间隔
指数序列
预测模型
slop displacement
grey theory
non-equal interval
exponential sequence
forecasting model
