摘要
人口是影响区域经济发展非常重要的因素,准确的人口预测为区域规划和决策提供科学依据。以甘肃省甘南藏族自治州为例,分别选取马尔萨斯模型、一元线性回归模型、logistic模型、GM(1,1)模型以及CPPS软件进行人口预测,通过对各模型结果进行比较分析,得出多方案均衡的甘南人口预测值为:2010年将达到71.61万人,2015年将达到74.73万人,2020年将达到77.73万人。
The population is a very important factor that affects regional economic development.The accurate population prediction provides a scientific basis for regional planning and decision-making.In this study Gannan,Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture in Gansu Province is taken for an example and the Malthusian model,a linear regression model,logistic model,GM（1,1） model and the CPPS software are used for population prediction.Through the results of a comparative analysis of the various models,it derives multi-solution equilibrium population prediction date of Gannan： It will reach 716.1 thousand people in 2010,747.3 thousand people in 2015 and 777.3 thousand people in 2020.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期1-8,共8页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家社科基金(06XMZ028)
甘肃省社科规划项目
西北师范大学科研团队项目(NWNU-KJCXGC-03-20)资助
关键词
人口预测
多模型
甘南藏族自治州
population prediction
multi-model
Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture
