摘要
2010年国际油价继续保持后金融危机时代的反弹并震荡上行总体态势,而且年内呈现出明显的先升后降再反弹的模式,季节性特征凸显。在分析油价主要影响因素的变动趋势之后,本文认为2011年国际油价波动主要取决于全球经济复苏的步伐和美元汇率的走势;预计2011年全球原油供需总体平衡或稍趋紧,基本面支持油价上升。在全球经济缓慢上升,世界政局相对平稳的情况下,2011年国际原油平均价格应该会超过2010年的水平,增至85～95美元/桶之间,实际油价将围绕平均价格宽幅震荡,呈现出明显的季节性波动特征。
The international crude oil price in 2010 maintains a rebound and upward momentum in the post-financial crisis era, with an evident seasonal pattern. This paper forecasts that oil price in 2010 depends primarily on the extent of global economic recovery and the volatility of US dollar exchange rate. In brief, the world crude oil supply of 2011 may not catch up with the growth of demand, even with an overall balance between them, which may support the rise of oil price. If global economy sees a sluggish but solid recovery growth and geopolitical situation appears relatively stable, it forecasts that the average international crude oil price of 2011 may rise to 85-95 US dollars per barrel and seasonal pattern can also be identified.
出处
《中国能源》
2011年第2期17-20,共4页
Energy of China
基金
国家自然科学基金(71001008
70733005
71020107026)
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20101101120041)
教育部人文社会科学研究基金(09YJC630011)
北京理工大学优秀青年教师资助计划(2010Y1317)
关键词
国际原油价格
油价预测
石油市场
International crude oil price
Oil price forecasting
Oil market
