摘要
首先对GM(1,1)模型的结构进行了研究和改进,给出了模型参数计算方法和精度检验方法。依据所建GM(1,1)模型,选用滦河下游地区节水工程改造后地下水位资料,对滦河下游地区地下水动态进行分析和数值模拟,利用实测资料对计算结果进行了验证。研究表明,模型预测拟合精度高,方法简便,可操作性强,对灌区地下水位预测评价和地下水合理开发利用具有一定的实用价值。
First and foremost,this paper works the calculation method of model parameters as well as accuracy-testing method by studying and improving the structure of GM（1,1）model.According to the established GM（1,1）model and by selecting materials of level of groundwater after water-saving project engineering in the downstream of the Luanhe River an analysis and numerical simulation is conducted of dynamic groundwater.And then calculated results are verified with measured data.The results show that thanks to its high fitting and forecasting precision,the model,which is easy to operate,possesses some practical value in prediction,evaluation,rational exploitation and utilization of groundwater in irrigation areas.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2011年第2期50-52,共3页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目"滦河下游区域水资源高效利用关键技术研究"(20081015)
关键词
GM(1
1)模型
滦河下游
节水改造
地下水位预测
GM（1
1） model
downstream of the Luanhe River
water-saving reform
underground water level forecast
