摘要
干旱作为自然灾害的一种,对人类社会、经济的发展构成严重威胁,如何准确的监测干旱的发生发展是开展抗旱减灾工作的关键。目前学者们多选用众多的指标来指示干旱,SPI标准降水指数作为其中的一种,是以更符合实际情况的Г分布概率来描述降水量的变化。其计算过程简单,具有较强的时空适应性,因而得到广泛应用。本文选取黄淮海平原区作为研究区域,以长时间尺度(本文选取12个月与36个月)的月值SPI来表征研究区域在1961-2000年这段历史时期内干湿状况的变化,从时间和空间两个角度研究长时间尺度的SPI值在指示地表干湿状况的效用,研究分析研究区域内干湿状况的时空分异,探索其成因,得出以下初步结论:研究区内2000年偏干旱的区域面积较1963年有所增大,与此同时,极端情况相对较少;除呼和浩特与郑州外,研究区域内有相当大面积的区域呈现偏干趋向,主要位于呼和浩特与郑州之间的大范围区域,推测区域的这种总体偏干旱的趋势可能是区域对全球变暖的响应。时间序列分析结果表明:在1961-2000年这段历史时期内呼和浩特与太原站出现的极端干旱的情况相对要多一些,北京次之,郑州最少;各站点的SPI值在时间序列上变化存在巨大差异,其主导因素是它们的纬度位置。
Drought,as one of the natural disasters,poses a serious threat to social and economic development.How to accurately monitor drought is the key to fight against the disaster.Currently,many indicators were selected to quantify drought,and among those indicators,standard precipitation index（SPI） is more suitable to the actual situation of Г probability distribution to describe the change of the precipitation.For its simple calculation process and strong adaptability,now SPI has been widely applied.Huang-Huai-Hai Region was selected as the research area here,with SPI Value of the long time series scale（12 months and 36 months were chosen） variation to describe the moisture conditions in the research area during 1961-2000.SPI Value of the long time scale described the efficiencies of the dry and moisture conditions of land surface.According to the temporal and spatial differences of the dry and moisture conditions,some general conclusions were drawn as follows： In the research area in 2000,the area being prone to drought increased compared with that in 1963;meanwhile,less extreme events happened.Except Zhengzhou and Hohhot meteorological stations,a very large proportion of the research areas had partial drought,mainly in the areas between Zhengzhou and Hohhot.We can deduce that the general trend of large area of drought is likely to be a certain kind of response to global warming.According to time series analysis,during 1961-2000,more extreme drought events appeared in Hohhot and Taiyuan meteorological stations than events in Beijing.The drought condition in Zhengzhou was relatively moderate.Large differences of the SPI variations on time series exist among each meteorological station;the dominant factor is the latitude location.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第2期100-105,共6页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目"综合风险鉴别与防范技术研究"(编号:2006BAC18B06)
关键词
干旱
干旱指标
SPI
时空分异
drought
drought index
SPI
spatial-temporal distribution
