摘要
统计新疆1951—2007年1870条雹灾资料,用气候趋势系数、二阶主值函数分析其长期变化趋势,对防雹前后(以1978年和1990年为界)趋势系数进行比较,分析防雹效果。用Mann-Kendall法进行突变分析,采用morlet小波分析其振荡周期发现,阿克苏地区雹灾损失在20世纪90年代达到最大,之后开始减少。雹灾受灾面积、雹灾次数分别在1972年和1976年发生了明显的突变。受灾面积和雹灾次数存在10～12 a和15～17 a的周期,雹灾经济损失存在5 a和8 a左右的周期。20世纪90年代阿克苏地区形成大规模综合防雹体系以来,防雹效果显著,平均每年雹灾受灾面积实际减少趋势为2.6%,经济损失实际减少趋势为4.4%,雹灾次数实际减少趋势为6.2%。
By applying climate trend coefficient and second order principal value function,it was analyzed that the long-term variation trend from 1870 records of hail damage in Xinjiang during 1951-2007.The effect of hail suppression was discussed by use of the contrast analysis on the trend coefficient before 1978 and after1990.The methods of Mann-Kendall and morlet wavelet were used to analyze the mutation and oscillating period respectively,which resulted that the loss by hail damage in Akesu area reached the top in 1990s and then began to decrease.The hail damage area and times are obviously mutated in 1972 and 1976.There are periods of 10~12 and 15~17 years in the affected area and the times of hail damage.The loss of hail damage has periods of about 5 and 8 years.Since the large-scale hail suppression system formed in 1990s,the effect of hail suppression is obvious in that the hail damage area,the loss of hail damage and the hail damage times reduced at the rate of 2.6%,4.4% and 6.2% per year respectively.
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2010年第6期6-11,共6页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40875010)
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(IBM200701)资助
关键词
阿克苏
雹灾
防雹区
趋势
突变
效益
Akesu
hail damage
the region of hail suppression
trend
mutation
benefit
