摘要
对AREM模式预报体系各成员2010年5月我国南方连续性暴雨过程的预报效果和预报特点进行了详细分析。结果表明:AREM模式预报体系各成员对此次过程的预报效果较好,且各具优势:业务模式对主雨带位置、范围有较好的预报效果;快速更新循环预报系统具有提供短时临近预报的优势;集合预报系统的降水集合平均和概率预报的有机结合能够为主雨带及其降水中心的预报提供较有价值的参考依据。
In order to know the forecast effect and character of each member of AREM prediction system,the precipitation forecast of AREM prediction system for five successive heavy rain courses in South China in May 2010 were verified and assessed.The results show that every member of the AREM prediction system had good performance with its own forecast features.Operational model had better forecast effect for the location,range and intensity of the main rain belt..AREM-RUC had the advantage of nowcast in short time prediction.AREM-EPS could provide important reference to forecast the main rain belt and the rain center based on the organic combination of the ensemble average prediction and probable prediction.
出处
《暴雨灾害》
2010年第4期356-362,376,共8页
Torrential Rain and Disasters
基金
科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200706012
GYHY200906010)
武汉暴雨研究所科研业务费项目(0903
1008)
关键词
AREM模式预报体系
华南连续暴雨过程
效果评估
AREM prediction system
Successive heavy rain courses in South China
Ensemble forecast
