摘要
本文全面分析了1900年至1996年发生于中国的7.0级以上大地震的天文特征.分析结果表明,本世纪106次7.0级以上大地震71%发生于月亮轨道(白道)与赤道交角变小阶段,62%以上发生于月亮升交点黄经位于350°～210°期间.这说明月亮轨道运行至此将会是中国地震活跃期.太阳活动及地球自转均与中国大地震的发生密切相关,太阳活动谷年普遍都有大地震发生;地球自转速度加快大地震多,本世纪地球自转速度加快时段发生的大震占72%.文中最后还对未来两年大震趋势提出了初步预测.
This paper analyses throughly the astronomical characteristics when the major earthquakes of above magnitude 7.0 occurred in China from 1900 to 1996. The analysed results show that among the 106 earthquakes of above magnitude 7.0 in 20th century,there are 71% occurred in the period when angle between Moon′s path and the celestial equator turns small and there are over 62% happened when the lunar longitude of ascending node lies from 350° to 210°. It shows that seismic active period in China will come when lunar orbit moves to these positions. The solar active and Earth rotation have a direct bearing on the eruption of events in China. There are ordinarily the occurrences of the major eavents in the gorgoe years of the solar active. There are more events when the Earth rotation makes speed. 72% of the major events in 20th century occurred during the accelaration period of the Earth rotation. The preliminary prediction for major earthquake tendency of future two years is given in the paper.
出处
《地球物理学进展》
CSCD
1999年第4期109-114,共6页
Progress in Geophysics
基金
云南省应用基础研究基金
