未来天气气候预报系统设想——国内外预报系统用户端研究综述
摘要
对用户来说,预报的主要目的是帮助用户应对不确定的天气风险,进行趋利避害的决策,这使得预报系统与用户之间存在不可剥离的联系。针对国内外研究中涉及用户方面问题的文献进行综述,在探讨预报如何满足用户需求基础上,提出未来天气预报预测系统的设想。
出处
《气象软科学》
2010年第6期124-131,共8页
Meteorology Soft Sciences
参考文献23
-
1Anaman, K. A., S. C. Lellyett, L. Drake, et al., 1997: Benefits of Meteorological Services: Evidence from Recent Research in Australia. Meteorological Applications, 5, 103-115.
-
2Anderson-Berry, L., T. Keenan, J. Bally, et al., 2004: The Societal, Social, and Economic Impacts of the World Weather Research Programme Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project (Wwrp S2000 Fdp). Weather and Forecasting, 19.
-
3David R, B. R., Hagedom R, 2005: First Workshop on the Thorpex Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). WMO, WWRP, document 1, 39.
-
4De Ella, R., R. Laprise, 2005: Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 1129-1143.
-
5Demuth, J. L., E. Gruntfest, R. E. Morss, et al., 2007: Building a Community for Integrating Meteorology and Social Science. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, 1729-1737.
-
6Dutton, J. A., 2002: Opportunities and Priorities in a New Era for Weather and Climate Services. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83, 1303-1311.
-
7Lee, K. K., and J. W. Lee, 2007: The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts for Decision-Making Problems in the Profit/Loss Situation. Meteorological Applications, 14, 455-463.
-
8Mass, C., 2006: The Uncoordinated Giant Why Us Weather Research and Prediction Are Not Achieving Their Potential. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 573-584.
-
9Merz, B., J. Friedrich, M. Disse, et al., 2006: Possibilities and Limitations of Interdisciplinary, User-Oriented Research: Experiences from the German Research Network Natural Disasters. Natural Hazards, 38, 3-20.
-
10Morgan, M. C., D. D. Houghton, L. M. Keller, 2007: The Future of Medium-Extended-Range Weather Prediction Challenges and a Vision. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, 631-634.
二级参考文献8
-
1严中伟.历史旱涝振荡谱的演变[J].科学通报,1994,39(5):431-434. 被引量:8
-
2严中伟.华北旱涝变化的混沌性质分析[J].气象学报,1995,53(2):232-237. 被引量:17
-
3王飞跃.社会计算:科学·技术·人文[J].中国科学院院刊,2005,20(5):370-376. 被引量:13
-
4岳超源.决策理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2004..
-
5Morss R E,Wilhelmi O V,Downton M W et al.Flood risk,uncertainty and scientific information for decision making.Bull.A.M.S.,2005,86 (11):1593-1601.
-
6Thorp A J.Weather Forecast:a century perspective.Weather,2004,59:332-335.
-
7Lau,K.-M.,M.-K.Kim,and K.-M.Kim.Asian summer monsoon anomalies induced by aerosol direct forcing-the role of the Tibetan Plateau.2005.Submitted to Climate Dynamics.(Conditionally accepted).
-
8严中伟,季劲钧,叶笃正.60年代北半球夏季气候跃变——Ⅰ.降水和温度变化[J].中国科学(B辑),1990(1):97-103. 被引量:114
共引文献44
-
1姚秀萍,吕明辉,张晓美,王丽娟,王昕.气象服务效益评估研究和业务进展[J].气象科技进展,2012,2(3):39-44. 被引量:25
-
2韩佳芮,严中伟.面向用户的未来天气气候预报系统[J].气象科技进展,2012,2(2):32-37. 被引量:2
-
3罗慧,谢璞,俞小鼎.奥运气象服务社会经济效益评估个例分析[J].气象,2007,33(3):89-94. 被引量:35
-
4叶笃正,严中伟,黄刚.我们应该如何应对气候变化[J].中国科学院院刊,2007,22(4):327-329. 被引量:6
-
5罗慧,张雅斌,刘璐,李彩莲,姚东升,宁海文.高影响天气事件公众关注度的风险评估[J].气象,2007,33(10):15-22. 被引量:44
-
6罗慧,李良序,张彦宇,刘璐,李社宏,李彩莲.气象风险源的社会关注度风险等级分析方法[J].气象,2008,34(5):9-13. 被引量:13
-
7封国林,杨杰,万仕全,侯威,支蓉.温度破纪录事件预测理论研究[J].气象学报,2009,67(1):61-74. 被引量:26
-
8彭跃华,于江龙.非线性时间序列分析在气候中的应用研究进展[J].气象,2009,35(10):3-7. 被引量:4
-
9杨杰,侯威,封国林.干旱破纪录事件预估理论研究[J].物理学报,2010,59(1):664-675. 被引量:15
-
10YE Duzheng YAN Zhongwei HUANG Gang.How Should We Address Climate Change?[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2009,23(4):208-211.
-
1降水概率预报业务应用系统的研究[J].黑龙江气象,1998(1):35-37.
-
2蒂姆.布鲁克斯.天气预报可信吗? 我们如何预知天地间的不测风云[J].华夏人文地理,2005(6):94-113.
-
3郑丽英,邓莉,陈志安.怎样掌握夜间云的观测[J].四川气象,2004,24(4):56-57. 被引量:2
-
4韩佳芮,严中伟.面向用户的未来天气气候预报系统[J].气象科技进展,2012,2(2):32-37. 被引量:2
-
5编译者的话[J].气象软科学,2009(B11):173-174.
-
6柯边.美军未来的第三代全球定位系统设想[J].航天电子对抗,2002,31(6). 被引量:1
-
7马克思·萨奥兹.蜗牛沙丘[J].风景园林,2007,14(6):101-101.
-
8薛玉华.能预报天气的植物[J].农村青年,2012(9):62-63.
-
9王桂兰.指示性云与德州未来天气[J].山东气象,1999,19(2):48-48.
-
10黄捷辉.短时预报未来天气[J].现代经济信息,2015(17).