我国公共支出规模增长的驱动与制约被引量：1

Sources and Limits of the Growth of Public Expenditure in China

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摘要本文采用三阶段最小二乘法从需求和供给两层面分析我国1978-2008公共支出规模增长的驱动与制约。实证结果表明:在控制政府举债能力影响下,就业规模增长,大量富余人员走向劳动力市场,由不可测度的生产力变为可测度的生产力,扩大了潜在税基;城市化规模扩大和城乡收入差距扩大是重要正向驱动因素,而人口规模和对外开放与公共支出规模增长间呈显著负向关系。我国的公共支出规模在长期内要以就业增长为基础。 Using the data from 1978 to 2008 and 3SLS, the paper analyzes the sources and limits of the growth of public expenditure in China from the angle of demand and supply. The empirical results show that, with the control of the effect of government borrowing, the scale of employment increase and a large number of surplus workers enter the labor market, leading to the change from immeasurable productivity to measurable one and the expansion of potential tax base. The enlargement of urbanization scale and urban-rural income gap has the positive effect on the growth of public expenditure, but the population scale and opening-up have the significant negative effects. In the long run, the public expenditure in China should be based on employment growth.

作者郭金秀高希武

机构地区南京大学经济学院

出处《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》 CSSCI 北大核心 2010年第6期63-69,96,共8页 Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

关键词公共支出规模税收能力城市化就业增长 public expenditure tax capacity urbanization employment growth

分类号 F062.6 [经济管理—政治经济学]

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