摘要
本研究拓展了传统的化石能源地概念,提出一种基于陆地生态系统碳循环模式的化石能源地面积估算方法。利用这一方法对中国1980~2006年各种能源消费项目的化石能源地面积进行估算,并利用基于协整理论的误差修正模型对工业化演进与化石能源地面积变动之间的动态均衡关系进行解析。研究结果显示：（1）中国1980~2006年各种能源消费项目的化石能源地I型与II型面积均呈波动增长态势,且增长过程具有明显的与工业化演进特点相对应的波动性特征;（2）工业化发展与化石能源地面积变化之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,当工业化水平变动1%时,化石能源地面积相应地同向变化4.515 4%;（3）工业化发展与化石能源地面积之间存在明显的动态均衡机制,上一年度的非均衡误差以30.59%的比率对本年度的化石能源地面积变动进行反向修正。
The traditional concept of fossil fuels land was extended and a method to estimate the area of fossil energy land was put forward based on carbon cycle model of the terrestrial eco-system.By taking the advantage of this method,China＇s area of fossil energy land in 1980~2006 was estimated.By using error correction model（ECM） based on the co-integration theory,the dynamic equilibrium between industrialization development and change of fossil energy land in 1980~2006 was analyzed.The results show that：（1） the area of type I（forest land） and type II（grassland） both increased from 1980 to 2006,and the process was corresponding with industrialization development;（2） there was a long-term stability equilibrium relationship between industrialization development and the fossil energy land,and when industrialization level changed by 1%,the fossil energy land would change by 4.515 4% to the same direction;（3） there was dynamic equilibrium mechanism between industrialization development and fossil energy land,and the non-balanced error of the previous year would correct reversely this year＇s fossil energy land at the rate of 30.59%.
出处
《中南林业科技大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第12期121-126,共6页
Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(CCNU09A01016)
关键词
工业化发展
化石能源地
生态足迹
动态均衡
中国
industrialization development
fossil energy land
ecological footprint
dynamic equilibrium
China
