摘要
由于风电功率具有随机性的特点,因此,仅对其期望进行分析难以反映其特征,电网运行风险也难以准确把握。为此,基于分位点回归分析理论,对风电功率波动区间,通过支持向量机自适应地选取回归函数,建立风电功率分位点回归模型,并基于内点法对该模型进行求解,实现了对未来时刻风电功率的波动区间分析。最后,采用所述方法对烟台地区电网的某风电场输出功率进行分析,结果表明该方法能够更加全面地刻画风电功率的不确定性规律,为调度、控制的风险决策提供依据。
Wind power is stochastic and is difficult to reflect its characteristics only by its expectation.Consequently the power grid risk is difficult to analyze.A new model based on the quantile regression analysis theory is proposed,in which a regression function is selected self-adaptively through support vector machine in each wind power fluctuation interval,and the interior point method is adopted to solve this model.The future wind power fluctuation interval analysis is realized.At last,the proposed method is used to analyze the output power of a wind farm in Yantai area power grid.The results show that the proposed method can give a better all-around description of wind power uncertainty,and provides a basis for the risk decisionmaking in the power system dispatch and control.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第3期83-87,共5页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50377021)
山东省博士后创新项目专项资金资助项目(200903070)~~
关键词
风力发电
区间分析
分位点回归
支持向量机
风险决策
风电功率预测
wind power generation
interval analysis
quantile regression
support vector machine
risk decisicn
wind power forecasting
