摘要
近十年来,东亚冬季气温明显升高。本文分析证明,东亚温度变化与赤道东太平洋和北太平洋重要洋流区的海表面温度(SST)有密切的遥相关。如果赤道东太平洋SST异常偏高(或异常偏低),即出现埃尔尼诺(或反埃尔尼诺)事件,则在其后7～24个月中,我国华北和东北将出现暖冬(或冷冬),渤海冰情将出现轻冰年(或重冰年)。据此建立的回归预报方程,对1988/1989年和1989/1990年冬季渤海海冰的预报结果完全正确。
In recent decade, the winter temperature in East Asia has been increasing obviously. The analysis in this paper verifies that the temperature change in winter in East Asia has a close teleconnection with sea surface temperature(SST) over the eastern equatorial Pacific and the main ocean current regions of the North Pacific. If SST over the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously higher (orlower),i.e. El Nino event (or Anti El Nino event)occurs, North and Northeast China would experience a warmer (or colder) winter, and the sea ice situation of the Bohai Sea would be a light (or severe, ice year) during the period of the following 7-24 months. Based on this idea, a regressive forecasting equation was established. The forecasting results of sea ice situation of the Bohai Sea in 1988/ 1989 and 1989/1990 winters were pretty good.
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
1990年第1期44-48,共5页
Advances in Water Science
