摘要
采用Probit模型和分区的方法探讨了常熟耕地保护区位选择问题,以求能更高效合理地保护耕地资源,缓解建设用地扩张与耕地保护的矛盾。通过模型运算,发现土壤质量、地势条件、GDP增长率、到城区和港区的交通通达性、距离城(镇)区的距离对耕地资源变迁作用明显,据此构建分区的指标体系,将常熟市划分为耕地保护最宜选择、较宜选择、一般选择、较不宜选择、最不宜选择区域等5种类型区,分别占总面积的30.2%、40.7%、17.9%、5.2%和6%,并提出耕地保护与建设空间发展的方向,达到提高耕地保护效率和预留合理的建设用地扩展空间的目标,为土地利用、基本农田保护和城乡等规划的编制与实施工作提供科学依据。
Scarcity of cultivated land,rapid industrialization and urbanization process have resulted in the expansion and high demand of construction land,causing heavy contradiction between the protection of cultivated land and the expansion of construction land.To alleviate this kind of contradiction in developed regions and harmonize the relationship between them,a quantitative evaluation method for reasonable and scientific location of cultivated land conservation is required,which has a significant meaning for harmonizing the relationship.Therefore,the paper explores the Probit measurement model and Zoning method to study the location of cultivated land conservation problem in Changshu city.Firstly,the analysis of modeling operation shows that factors such as the quality of land,terrain condition,GDP growth rates,accessibility to downtown and harbor,the distance to downtown and so on,have evident influences on the changing process of cultivated resource.According to the factors,an indictor system of zoning is established.Secondly,based on the evaluation results,the study area is divided into five sub-regions： the most suitable region,the relative suitable region,the suitable region,the relative unsuitable region and the unsuitable region,which account for 30.2%,40.7%,17.9%,5.2% and 6% of the total areas respectively.Finally,on the basis of the zoning results,guidelines for protecting farmland and developing construction land are offered,which can not only improve the rate of protection farmland but also reserves scientific construction land.This paper has provided scientific implications for site selection of Comprehensive Land Use Planning,Primary Farmland Conservation Subject Plan,Urban and Regional Planning and Project.
出处
《地理研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第12期2261-2270,共10页
Geographical Research
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-YW-321
KZCX2-YW-339)
国家自然科学基金项目(40771053
70503026)
关键词
耕地保护
区位选择
PROBIT模型
建设空间
常熟市
cultivated land conservation
location choice
Probit model
construction space
Changshu city
