摘要
对重大雷灾的研究和预测能够为防灾减灾及政府相关部门的决策提供科学依据。由于历年重大雷灾样本数过少,应用统计方法得出的预测结果会产生很大的误差。以福建省为例,分析了2000～2006年全省的雷灾变化趋势,并尝试利用信息扩散技术对全省重大雷灾进行预测。结果表明:雷灾总数呈现逐年递增趋势,而重大雷灾事故的发生次数没有明显变化;福建省每年重大雷灾的出现次数集中在27～40次之间,其累积概率约为70%,重大雷灾年累计次数小于20次或大于45次的可能性几乎为0;重大雷灾次数大于34次的发生概率约为2年一遇,大于42次的发生概率大约为10年一遇。
Because of the scarcity of serious lightning samples,statistical methods cannot be used in analysis.Taking Fujian Province as an example,analyzed is the variation tendency of lightning disasters from 2000 to 2006,aiming to predict serious lightning disasters using the information diffusion technique.The results show that the total frequency of lightning disasters presented an increasing tendency,but the frequency of serious lightning disasters did not change obviously.There usually are 27 to 40 serious lightning disasters each year in Fujian Province,and the probability of the accumulated frequency being less than 20 times or more than 45 times is almost negligible.The occurrence probability of serious lightning disasters being more than 34 times is about once every two years,and that of more than 42 times lightning disaster and once every ten years.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2010年第2期270-272,273,共4页
Meteorological Science and Technology
关键词
重大雷灾
信息扩散技术
预测
serious lightning disaster
information diffusion technique
prediction
