摘要
以太阳黑子和自相关因子为预测因子，采用逐步回归分析方法，建立杉木〔Ｃｕｎｎｉｎｇｈａｍｉａｌａｎｃｅｏｌａｔａ（Ｌａｍｂ．）Ｈｏｏｋ．〕胸径生长的预测模型，结果表明前３年和８年的太阳黑子相对数及前５年杉木胸径生长的年轮指数值对杉木胸径生长存在正相关，前１年和４年的太阳黑子相对数及前６年和７年杉木胸径生长的年轮指数值对杉木胸径生长存在负相关，该模型的模拟精度和预测精度分别为９８９５％和９８４５％，且可提前５年进行预测。
The prediction model of breast diameter growth about Cunninghamia lanceolata
(Lamb.) Hook. was established by stepwise regression analysis with the sun pot and auto
correlated factors as forecast factors. The results showed that the sun pot of three and eight
years ago and the ring index of five years ago had positive effects on breast diameter growth of
Cunninghamia lanceolata, that the sun pot of one and four years ago and the ring index of six
and seven years ago had negative effects on breast diameter growth of Cunninghamia
lanceolata, that the simulating precision and forecasting accuracy of the model reached 98.95%
and 98.45% respectively, and it could be send out the forecasting information five years ahead
based on the model. This study would provide a new systematic analysis method for predicting
tree growth.
出处
《植物资源与环境》
CSCD
1999年第2期18-21,共4页
Journal of Plant Resources and Environment
基金
福建省自然科学基金
关键词
杉木
预测
太阳黑子
生长
Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.
prediction
sun pot
growth
