摘要
中国当前已经成为世界第一碳排放大国,准确认识碳排放增长的机理为挖掘碳减排路径提供科学依据。首先,本文将人口增长、经济增长、产业结构演进、能源结构演进四大碳排放影响因子分为放大因子、双向拉动因子以及缩小因子三类,并分析各因子自1953年-2006年的变化特征。其次,本文按照各因子的变化特征将1953年-2006年分解为:1953年-1977年、1978年-1992年、1993年-2006三个不同的研究时段,并采用相关分析法以及绘制散点图来研究不同时段各因子与碳排放增长的关系。研究发现:①在三个不同的研究时段里,人口增长、经济增长、产业结构演进一直拉动中国碳排放增长。能源结构变化在1953年-1977年以及1993年-2006年对抑制碳排放量的作用较小,在1978年-1992年能源结构变化增加碳排放量;②在过去几十年里,产业结构演进处于拉动碳排放增长的局面,在诸多碳排放影响因子中,产业结构的演进是碳排放增长的主导因子。最后,本文基于对中国人口增长、经济增长、产业结构演进以及能源结构演进的基本态势的分析,认为中国未来碳减排的主要潜力在于产业结构多元化发展以及经济增长带来的技术进步节能减排。
Date from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of Oak Ridge National Laboratory indicated that China＇s carbon emissions had amounted to 1.6 billion metric tons in year 2006.At present,China has been the biggest carbon emitter in the world,which makes it under a grim situation.There is therefore an emergent need to make great efforts to conduct research on it. This paper aims to examine in detail mechanisms of carbon emissions and provide a basis for tackling problems associated with carbon emissions.Carbon emissions growth is primarily affected by five factors,i.e.,energy consumption growth,population growth,economic growth,evolution of the industrial structure,and the energy structure,in which the energy consumption growth is the direct cause for carbon emissions growth,and the other four factors are considered indirect causes. The authors made a comprehensive investigation into the five factors starting from the four indirect causes to analyze mechanisms of carbon emissions growth.First,four influential factors as for carbon emissions,involving population growth,economic growth,evolution of the industrial structure,and the energy structure,were conceptually grouped into the magnification factor, two-way driven factor,and reduction factor.Subsequently,change characteristics of each influential factor from 1953 to 2006 were analyzed.Second,in terms of the change characteristics of each factor,we generally partitioned the period 1953-2006 into three stages：1953-1977, 1978-1992,and 1993-2006,and unraveled the relationship between each influential factor and the increase of carbon emissions in different periods using methods of relevant analysis and scatter diagrams.There are two major findings obtained：1）in three study periods,influential factors of carbon emissions consisting of population growth,economic growth,and evolution of the industrial structure contributed to increases in carbon emissions.The change of the energy structure had little effect on carbon emissions reduction during the periods 1953-1977 and 1993-2006;and 2）in the past decades,the evolution of the industrial structure has been increasing the carbon emissions,which is considered the leading factor for increasing the carbon emissions.At last,based on analysis of the basic trends of China＇s population growth,economic growth,evolution of the industrial structure,and the energy structure,it is suggested that major methods for reducing and releasing carbon emissions depend largely on a diversified strategy for development of the industrial structure and technical improvement in carbon emissions reduction.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第11期2059-2065,共7页
Resources Science
基金
国家环保公益性行业科研专项经费(编号:200809151)
关键词
碳排放因子
能源
碳排放增长
增长机理
Carbon emissions； Influential factors； Energy consumption； Carbon emission growth； Mechanism
