摘要
对现行老年人社会福利制度进行解析并建立计量模型,运用抽样调查数据,完善并调整了2008年陕西省老年人社会福利供给总量的公布数据;对适度普惠型社会福利进行界定,构建了计量模型,以中等发达国家的经济发展水平和社会进步程度为参照,测算了2020年我国适度普惠型社会福利的主要参数和需求总量;运用时间序列预测法测算了2020年我国社会福利可能提供的供给总量,并与适度普惠型老年人社会福利需求相比较。结果显示,2009-2020年陕西省老年人社会福利供给均小于社会福利需求,因此必须建立＂全覆盖、多支柱、可持续＂的社会福利制度。
By analyzing and building an econometric model for the current senior citizen social welfare system,and by applying sample survey data,this paper has adjusted and perfected the released data of total supply of senior citizen social welfare in Shaanxi province（2008）.Then by defining the moderately-covered social welfare,building an econometric model,and referring to the degree of economic development and social progress of medium-developed countries,this paper has calculated the main parameters and total demand of moderately-covered social welfare of China in 2020.Furthermore,it has calculated the estimated total supply of China′s social welfare in 2020 by using the time series method,and compared it with the demand of senior citizen moderately-covered social welfare.The results suggest that the total supply would be less than the total demand of senior citizen social welfare from 2009 to 2020,thus it is essential to build a ＂fully-covered,multi-pillar and sustained＂ social welfare system.
出处
《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第6期51-61,共11页
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences
基金
国家社科基金重大项目(098ZD057)
关键词
老年人
社会福利
适度普惠型
senior citizen
social welfare
moderately-covered type
