摘要
通过对北京地区１９００年以来雨量、气温和太阳活动的关系及厄尔尼诺（Ｅｌｎｉｎｏ）年的关系处理分析，给出一种预测北京市年雨量的数学模型，已准确预测了１９９６．１９９７年的年雨量，并给出１９９８年的雨量预测值为７５０～８００ｍｍ和１９９９年的雨量预测值为６３０—６８ｍｍ．
The relationship among rainfall,air temperature and solar activity in Beijing areasince 1900 and the effect of Elnino year are studied. It reveals that the weather variation inBeijing area is related to the sunspot activity, and if the year is Elnino year it is easy to be aridin Beijing area. From data analysis, a mathematic model is proposed to forecast the rainfall inBeijing area. By using the model, the rainfall in 1996 and 1997 has been precisely forecast.And the forecasting annual rainfall is 750~800mm for 1998 and 630 ~680 mm for 1999respectively.
出处
《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第1期75-79,共5页
Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金
关键词
北京
年雨量
预测
太阳活动
厄尔尼诺
Beijing, annual rainfall, forecast
solar activity
Elnino
