摘要
根据１９５１年以来１６０站观测资料对我国冬季气温进行了ＥＯＦ分析，发现全国绝大部分区域的冬温变化有很好的一致性。因此，冬季平均气温能较好反映全国的整体变化特征。用全国气温等级图资料订正了１９１０年至１９５０年全国平均气温，用北京和上海２站的平均气温订正了１８８０年至１９１９年平均气温。对１８８０年以来的全国平均冬季气温序列取１０ａ一遇标准，确认出近１１８ａ中共有１３次异常暖冬和１０次异常冷冬。
Based on the winter temperature data of 160 s tations in China, the EOF analysis is carried out Results show the coherence of the spatial pattern over most China very clear Therefore, the averaged winter temperature of China can reflect the characterist ics of the change reasonably The mean winter temperature time series from 1880 to 1997 is established The standard of 1 3σ is chosen If the temperature anomaly is above or equal to +1 3σ, the winter will be classified as an anomalous cold winter Two factors that may aff ect the winter temperature: the Siberian High and global mean winter temperature Linear regre ssion method is applied to estimate the contribution of those two factors to the winter tempe rature anomalies of China During the past century, about 43 3% of winter temperature variance can be accounted by the Siberian High and global mean winter temperature, and the perce ntage of variance explained by Siberian High is 22 2%, by global mean winter temperature is 21 1% respectively
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
1999年第2期63-68,共6页
Journal of Catastrophology
