摘要
在全球经济复苏的背景下,一些国家的贸易保护主义又开始抬头,关于中国对外贸易的问题又成为众人关注的焦点。文章基于人民币汇率改革以来的月度数据,通过构建VAR模型,运用单位根检验、Johansen协整检验以及误差修正模型等方法,对人民币实际汇率如何影响中国对美国的净出口作了实证分析。通过分析发现,人民币升值对改善中美贸易收支平衡状况存在显著影响,而从长期来看,改善中国贸易收支的关键在于中国经济的持续增长。
In the context of global economic recovery,trade protectionism has begun to gain ground in some countries.The issue of China＇s foreign trade has become a focus of attention.Based on monthly data since the RMB exchange rate reform,this paper made an empirical analysis on how the real exchange rate of RMB affect Sino-US net exports,by building a VAR model,using the unit root test,Johansen co-integration test and error correction model.The analysis revealed that RMB appreciation had significant effect on Sino-US trade balance of payments,and that in the long run,China＇s economic growth is the key to improve China＇s trade balance.
出处
《兰州学刊》
CSSCI
2010年第10期40-44,共5页
基金
中国人民大学博士研究生科学研究基金项目
基金编号为10XNG015
关键词
净出口
汇率改革
汇率弹性
收入弹性
net export
exchange rate reform
exchange rate elasticity
income elasticity
