摘要
推导给出了公路交通对土壤铅污染的预测计算模式，分析了采用该模式预测土壤中铅含量时可能出现的3种不同结果，即高于、等于或低于背景值及其判别条件。结合中国公路交通的实际情况，论证了在不考虑非公路污染源时，公路交通引起土壤中铅累积量在营运近期将低于土壤背景值。认为合理确定非公路污染源强度、铅沉降面积及铅残留系数是影响预测评价土壤铅污染的主要因素。
The pollution prediction models of Pb in soil due to highway transportation are deduced. The available three different results, i. e. greater than or less than or equal to the background value, and their discriminantes are discussed while the models are used to predict the amount of Pb in soil. On the basis of the situation of highway transportation in China, it is proved tha the amount of Pb in soil is less than the backgrund value during the short operation phase of highway, if the other pollution sources are not considered. It is beieved that rationally taking the nonhighway pollution source, the precipition area and the remaining fraction of Pb into account in calculation are the major factors tha affect the accuracy of predicting results.
